|Bet with andrewducker
||[May. 4th, 2013|04:54 pm]
andrewducker related to voting systemsI am making the following bet with |
"I bet Andrew Ducker that before May 4th 2033 the UK (or that part of the UK which stays with London after any devolution) will retain First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) for general elections. Further, no English county council/unitrary authority elections (of the type described in ) will switch system away from FPTP.
The person who loses will buy the winner a drink of their choice (within reason -- pints of champagne or bottles of aged whiskey are out) in a bar in the winner's home city... presence over video accepted if distance precludes attendance in person.
Reasoning: Unrelated to bet but this is why I think the above.
I believe that, for the forseeable future the majority UK (or at least the England part of the UK) has no particular desire for voting schemes other than the simplest. I believe that there are plenty of systems better than first part the post but I think my belief is a minority one. Some political parties who currently support FPTP will in the short term have an advantage in switching to a different system (the Tories are probably in this position right now). However, they would appear cynical to switch to such a system in the near future. For at least ten years we will have important people in their cabinets who have recently publicly spoken out in favour of AV (as a result of the referendum debates) -- more so for the Tories than for Labour (who had more people in favour of AV).
For ten years a referendum is pretty unthinkable (as we "just had one"). After that it will take a few years for a party to gain consensus for a referendum to occur. I don't believe traditional media owners (newspapers and TV) will switch their preferences on which voting system they like as FPTP seems to provide easier to report on clear victories and such media owners have a strong preference for simple stories. Without the support of major political parties or traditional media, it will be hard to generate any momentum to change the voting system.
I do believe that any new electoral systems in the UK are likely to use more sophisticated forms of voting and FPTP will be the minority in new elections (for example if we get more mayoral elections). New systems are easier to change.